October 03 2025

Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more than 3 years. "Mortgage rates increased to their highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger-than-expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications edged lower, with the seasonally adjusted index down 1% and the unadjusted index down 2%, though both measures remain 16% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 55.0% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 8.4%. The FHA share increased to 16.8%, while the VA share declined to 16.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary:

September 26 2025

Existing-home sales held roughly steady in August after tepid uptick in July. That NAR reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million , down 0.2% from July but 1.8% higher than a year ago. Sales have now hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years, reflecting the same constrained but stable environment that has defined the market since 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said mortgage rates are beginning to ease and inventory is slowly improving, which should help future sales. He added that record-high housing wealth and a strong stock market may support move-up activity, even as the lower end of the market remains tight. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, August 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 480k -4.0% $534,200 +6.2% Midwest 960k +2.1% $330,500 +4.5% South 1.83m -1.1% $364,100 +0.4% West 730k +1.4% $624,300 +0.6% National Market Stats

September 26 2025

New home sales surged in August, breaking a two-year stretch of range-bound activity. The Census Bureau and HUD reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000 , up 20.5% from July’s revised 664,000 and 15.4% above August 2024’s 693,000. This is the strongest monthly gain since the pandemic boom and a clear departure from the prior sideways trend. The only caveat is that this data series is notorious for wide margins of error and revisions. For-sale inventory fell to 490,000 , down 1.4% from July and 4.0% higher than a year ago. At the current sales pace, that represents a 7.4-month supply , a sharp drop from July’s 9.0 months and nearly 10% below August 2024. It is normal for inventory to move lower when sales increase, all else equal. Prices moved higher with the sales surge. The median sales price climbed to $413,500 (+4.7% MoM; +1.9% YoY), while the average price jumped to $534,100 (+11.7% MoM; +12.3% YoY). The share of $1 million-plus homes rose to roughly 7% of total sales, double July’s level, helping lift the average. Regional Sales (MoM): Northeast +72.2%, Midwest +12.7%, South +24.7%, West +5.6% Stage of Construction: Not started 96,000; under construction 290,000; completed 414,000 Median months on market (completed): 2.7 On a qualitative note, the huge move in home sales may raise questions about whether the recent rally in interest rates played a role. While there is broad connection between rates and sales at times, it never has an impact that quickly. After all, this sales data is for the month of August, and rates didn't make their big move until September.